Quick recap

Carl K9LA presented an analysis of solar cycle 25, discussing its current state and potential impacts on propagation and geomagnetic field activity, while emphasizing the importance of consulting solar physicists for detailed insights. The presentation covered comparisons of sunspot numbers between hemispheres, predictions for future propagation conditions, and the relationship between solar cycles and phenomena like sporadic E and geomagnetic storms. The conversation ended with discussions about solar imaging satellites and magnetic field data collection, with Carl agreeing to share presentation materials with attendees.

Next steps

• Carl to send PDF of the presentation to Bob and Kevin.
• Kevin to add the Madison DX Club YouTube channel to the list of recommended resources for solar cycle information.
• Carl to correct typos in the presentation slides before sending the PDF.
• Carl to add Jim Bacon's (G3YLA) sporadic E prediction maps to the presentation.
• Carl to include Dr. Jim Kennedy's (K6MIO) papers on F2 propagation and sporadic E in the presentation.
• Carl to review Dr. Douglas Biesecker's November 2020 presentation on the Madison DX Club YouTube channel.
• Club members to monitor 6-meter band for potential openings in fall/winter 2025-2026.

Summary

Solar Cycle 25 and Beyond

Carl K9LA presented on the "downside of solar cycles," discussing the current state and future of Cycle 25, including its decline and potential impacts on propagation and geomagnetic field activity. He emphasized the importance of consulting solar physicists like Dr. Scot Macintosh for more detailed insights and recommended exploring relevant YouTube channels for updated information. Carl also touched on the possibility of Cycle 26 and encouraged attendees to review his presentation slides, which he planned to share with Bob for further distribution.

Solar Cycle 25 Propagation Analysis

Carl presented an analysis of solar cycle 25, noting that it is between the average and small cycles, and may or may not be in its descent. He predicted that 15, 12, and 10 meters should have good propagation through fall and winter of 2025-2026, with potential for 2026-2027. Carl also discussed the impact of solar cycles on sporadic E and geomagnetic storms, emphasizing the increased likelihood of geomagnetic storms during the declining phase of cycle 25.

Sunspot Hemispheric Comparison Discussion

Carl presented slides comparing sunspot numbers in the northern and southern hemispheres, noting that the northern hemisphere was quieter. Gary asked about the relationship between hemispheric peaks, which Carl couldn't definitively answer but suggested consulting Dr. McIntosh for more insight. Kevin inquired about the impact of new solar imaging satellites on predictions, which Carl also couldn't address but agreed to look into. Derek asked about the difference between sunspot numbers in the hemispheres, and Carl explained that the underlying physics was not well understood. Walt raised questions about sporadic E on 6 meters, including its correlation with sunlight and meteor ablation, and Carl noted that while meteor deposition correlated well with sporadic E patterns, causation was not established.

Solar Cycle Hemisphere Variations

Carl presented on solar cycle variations between northern and southern hemispheres, noting that while cycle 24 showed significant differences between hemispheres, cycle 25 was more similar. The group discussed how solar magnetic fields and plasma movements remain poorly understood, with Marshall mentioning that the Parker Solar Probe has been collecting data on chromosphere magnetic field lines for 20 revolutions. The conversation ended with Carl agreeing to share PDF materials the following day and Kevin expressing appreciation for Carl's presentations, while Ed had some additional comments to make after the main discussion.